Do you remember your frame of mind three months ago? How about five months ago? Well, imagine trying to remember the scuttlebutt and vibes when Television Academy members voted for the 2023 Primetime Emmy Awards last…August. Of course, the 75th Anniversary ceremony was supposed to be held on September 19th, but Hollywood had more important things going on with the WGA and SAG strikes. The Television Academy and their broadcast partner, FOX, decided to reschedule for January and, well, frankly we wish we’d taken the time to sit down and formulate these predictions four months ago.
READ MORE: “The Last of Us” dominates Creative Arts Emmys night one
The good news is that some Emmy Awards have already been handed out. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards were held in two ceremonies this past weekend and were full of surprises. The biggest was that “The Last of Us” dominated night one taking eight trophies including Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Drama Series, which are voted on by the largest branch of the Television Academy, the Actors (do the math). The presumptive Drama Series favorite, “Succession,” didn’t win any. In the Comedy Series categories, “The Bear” took four trophies while the other presumptive favorite, “Ted Lasso,” took two. Does that mean upsets are in store? Well, there are always a few, right?
Keeping that in mind, here are some very overthought predictions for the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards.
ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jeff Bridges – The Old Man
Brian Cox – Succession
Kieran Culkin – Succession
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong – Succession
Who Will Win: Keiran Culkin, “Succession”
Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Upset: Jeremy Strong, “Succession” or Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
Lowdown: The third time for this role and this category is the charm for Culkin right? In theory, his co-star Strong could win here again, but he was just snubbed by SAG earlier this week. If Pascal takes this one, watch out.
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Sharon Horgan – Bad Sisters
Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
Keri Russell – The Diplomat
Sarah Snook – Succession
Who Will Win: Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Who Should Win: Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Upset: Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” or Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
Lowdown: Like her co-star, if Ramsey wins here it could mean “Last of Us” is ripe for a Drama Series upset. That being said, we think Snook is pretty safe. Maybe.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
F Murray Abraham – The White Lotus
Nicholas Braun – Succession
Michael Imperioli – The White Lotus
Theo James – The White Lotus
Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
Alan Ruck – Succession
Will Sharpe, The White Lotus
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
Who Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Who Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Upset: Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus”
Lowdown: Macfadyen should easily repeat here after winning his first trophy in 2022.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown
Meghann Fahy – The White Lotus
Sabrina Impacciatore – The White Lotus
Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus
Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul
J Smith-Cameron – Succession
Simona Tabasco – The White Lotus
Who Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Who Should Win: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Safest bet of the night.
ACTOR IN A IN A COMEDY SERIES
Bill Hader – Barry
Jason Segel – Shrinking
Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Who Should Win: Bill Hader, “Barry”
Upset: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Lowdown: Allen White is the likely winner, but Sudeikis has already won this category twice. It’s not a lock.
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate – Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Natasha Lyonne – Poker Face
Jenna Ortega – Wednesday
Who Will Win: Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”
Who Should Win: Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
Upset: Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” or Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Lowdown: “Wednesday” has already won four Emmy Awards and we think people are underestimating its popularity with the Television Academy. Ortega takes it in a “surprise” over Brunson.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Carrigan – Barry
Phil Dunster – Ted Lasso
Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
James Marsden – Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear
Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler – Barry
Who Will Win: Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Who Should Win: Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Upset: Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso” or James Marsden, “Jury Duty”
Lowdown: Is Goldstein really going to win for the third time? Marsden seems like a stretch, but could pull it off. Might be a mistake, but we’re going with the safer pick of Williams.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alex Bornstein – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
Ayo Edebiri – The Bear
Janelle James – Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple – Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso
Jessica Williams – Shrinking
Who Will Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Who Should Win: Ayo Edeiri, “The Bear”
Upset: Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso” or Ayo Edeiri, “The Bear”
Lowdown: Emmy voters love a repeat winner and Ralph should fend off Edeiri (at least this year) to take her second trophy.
LIMITED SERIES
Beef
Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daisy Jones and the Six
Fleishman Is in Trouble
Obi-Wan Kenobi
Who Will Win: “Beef”
Who Should Win: “Beef”
Upset: “Dahmer-Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Lowdown: Book it.
ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Taron Egerton – Black Bird
Kumail Nanjiani – Welcome the Chippendales
Evan Peters – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daniel Radcliffe – Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Michael Shannon – George & Tammy
Steven Yeun – Beef
Who Will Win: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Who Should Win: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Upset: Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Lowdown: No one should discount Radcliffe or “Weird,” which took the Television Movie Emmy already. We still think that more branch voters saw “Beef” than that Roku Channel production though. That should get Yeun the win.
ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Lizzy Caplan – Fleishman Is in Trouble
Jessica Chastain – George & Tammy
Dominique Fishback – Swarm
Kathryn Hahn – Tiny Beautiful Things
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones and the Six
Ali Wong, Beef
Who Will Win: Ali Wong, “Beef”
Who Should Win: Ali Wong, “Beef”
Upset: Jessica Chastain, “George & Tommy”
Lowdown: Chastain really campaigned for this before the strike, but Wong should pull it off.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Murray Bartlett – Welcome to Chippendales
Paul Walter Hauser – Black Bird
Richard Jenkins – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Joseph Lee – Beef
Ray Liotta – Black Bird
Young Mazino – Beef
Jesse Plemons – Love & Death
Who Will Win: Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”
Who Should Win: Young Mazino, “Beef”
Upset: Richard Jenkins, “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” or Ray Liotta, “Black Bird”
Lowdown: This race is pretty wide open, but our gut says Walter Hauser pulls it off. Liotta, who passed away in May, could take it as well.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE
Annaleigh Ashford – Welcome to Chippendales
Maria Bello – Beef
Claire Danes – Fleishman is in Trouble
Juliette Lewis – Welcome to Chippendales
Camila Morrone – Daisy Jones & the Six
Niecy Nash-Betts – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Who Will Win: Nicey Nash-Betts, “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Who Should Win: Claire Danes, “Fleishman is in Trouble”
Upset: Maria Bello, “Beef” or Claire Danes, “Fleishman is in Trouble”
Lowdown: It’s a horserace between Nash-Betts and Danes, but we think the former pulls it off.
REALITY COMPETITION SERIES
The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Survivor
Top Chef
The Voice
Who Will Win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”
Who Should Win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”
Upset: “Survivor”
Lowdown: “Survivor” had a great comeback season in 2023, but “Drag Race” is the only one of the five nominated series to win any Emmys at the Creative Arts ceremony (two). We think the Paramount/MTV staple will return to the winner’s circle after “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” shocked in 2022, but anything could happen.
TALK SERIES
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Late Night with Seth Meyers
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
The Problem with Jon Stewart
Who Will Win: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
Who Should Win: “Late Night with Seth Meyers”
Upset: “The Problem with Jon Stewart” or “Late Night with Seth Meyers”
Lowdown: This is a tough one with “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” which won this category for seven straight years, being requalified for Outstanding Scripted Variety Series. Our gut says “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” pulls it off, but honestly, a flip ’em.
OUTSTANDING SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES
A Black Lady Sketch Show
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Saturday Night Live
Who Will Win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
Who Should Win: “A Black Lady Sketch Show”
Upset: None, unless you consider “Saturday Night Live” an upset
Lowdown: We can’t imagine “Last Week Tonight” ending its winning ways, but maybe the voting block for “SNL” is bigger than we think.
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)
The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna
Chris Rock: Selective Outrage
Elton John Live: Farewell From Dodger Stadium
The Oscars
75th Annual Tony Awards
Who Will Win: “Elton John Live: Farewell From Dodger Stadium”
Who Should Win: “Elton John Live: Farewell From Dodger Stadium”
Upset: “The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna”
Lowdown: This is Elton John’s first Emmy nomination. If he wins it, he’s EGOT. Are voters really going to pick a Rihanna Super Bowl over that historic achievement? Wait, don’t answer that…
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Barry, “wow”
Bill Hader, Written by
The Bear, “System”
Christopher Storer, Written by
Jury Duty, “Ineffective Assistance”
Mekki Leeper, Written by
Only Murders In The Building, “I Know Who Did It”
John Hoffman, Written by Matteo Borghese, Written by Rob Turbovsky, Written by
The Other Two, “Cary & Brooke Go To An AIDS Play”
Chris Kelly, Written by
Sarah Schneider, Written by
Ted Lasso, “So Long, Farewell”
Brendan Hunt, Written by
Joe Kelly, Written by
Jason Sudeikis, Written by
Who Will Win: “The Bear”
Who Should Win: “The Other Two”
Upset: “Ted Lasso” or “Barry”
Lowdown: This is a very tough category. “The Bear” seems the safest choice but…
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Andor, “One Way Out”
Beau Willimon, Written by
Bad Sisters, “The Prick”
Sharon Horgan, Teleplay by Dave Finkel, Teleplay by Brett Baer, Teleplay by
Better Call Saul. “Point And Shoot”
Gordon Smith, Written by
Better Call Saul, “Saul Gone”
Peter Gould, Written by
The Last Of Us, “Long, Long Time”
Craig Mazin, Written for Television by
Succession, “Connor’s Wedding”
Jesse Armstrong, Written by
The White Lotus, “Arrivederci”
Mike White, Written by
Who Will Win: “Succession”
Who Should Win: “Andor”
Upset: “The White Lotus” or “The Last of Us”
Lowdown: The “Succession” episode is a television classic. You could argue the series peaked in its final season with that specific episode. It should wins.
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
BEEF, “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech In Pain”
Lee Sung Jin, Written by
Fire Island
Joel Kim Booster, Written by
Fleishman Is In Trouble, “Me-Time”
Taffy Brodesser-Akner, Written for Television by
Prey
Patrick Aison, Written by & Story by Dan Trachtenberg, Story by
Swarm, “Stung”
Janine Nabers, Teleplay by & Story by Donald Glover, Story by
Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Al Yankovic, Written by Eric Appel, Written by
Who Will Win: “Beef”
Who Should Win: “Beef”
Upset: “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Lowdown: “Beef.” It’s “Beef.”
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Late Night With Seth Meyers
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
Saturday Night Live
Who Will Win: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Who Should Win: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Upset: “Saturday Night Live”
Lowdown: Well, “Last Week Tonight” is absolutely winning here.
COMEDY SERIES
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
Wednesday
Who Will Win: “The Bear”
Who Should Win: “The Bear”
Upset: “Jury Duty,” “Ted Lasso”
Lowdown: The safe pick is “Ted Lasso,” but the backlash on the third season was real (at least in the industry). Members voted after watching an even more well-received second season of “The Bear” just weeks before. Substantial support for “Jury Duty” will also siphon off a significant number of votes. Our guess is those are more “Lasso” votes than “Bear” ones. Maybe it’s a stretch. Maybe one more win or “Lasso” for its final season is inevitable. But maybe it isn’t.
DRAMA SERIES
Andor
Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
The Last of Us
Succession
The White Lotus
Yellowjackets
Who Will Win: “Succession”
Who Should Win: “Succession”
Upset: “The Last of Us”
Lowdown: “The Last of Us” could pull off the upset. It was the second most watched season of a program on HBO since “Game of Thrones.” We’ve already remarked on its eight trophies so far. But “Succession” is seminal television. The Television Academy won’t snub a drama that influenced the medium and nailed its finale (a marked difference with “Ted Lasso”). At least we don’t think they will. Maybe.
