The report that broke this afternoon about Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” potentially releasing in theaters before it hits the Netflix streaming service wasn’t surprising to anyone following the Oscar season closely. Sources had told me a few weeks ago that the initial plan floated to stockholders that consisted of a theatrical release on 100 screens worldwide and a day and date launch on the streaming service was never 100% set in and stone. Moreover, there are a number of obvious reasons why.
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First of all, let’s be completely frank; “Roma” has a legitimate shot to win Best Picture and everyone knows it. Cuaron’s epic may statistically be “the” most acclaimed film of the year when all is said and done. It should win the Best Film honor from either LAFCA or NYFCC (or possibly both). It will theoretically be on more top 10 lists than any other movie. And, therefore, if it was under any other distributor’s care it would be close to or if not “the” frontrunner to win the Academy’s top prize (and that’s even taking into account a Foreign Language film has never won Bst Picture before). But, of course, Netflix isn’t like any other distributor.
In the past, Netflix has insisted on including any theatrical release as day and date with its Netflix launch. Since a very disappointing “Beasts of No Nation” debut in 2015, the company has also often bought out the theaters (known as four-walling) which means box office results are not reported. It should be noted some other distributors will do this to make sure their limited per screen is as high as possible, but that’s a rare occurrence. By putting the films in theaters Netflix satisfies filmmaker and talent wishes, but there’s a big twist when it comes to awards season campaigning.
Despite the advent of social media, breaking news alerts and even TV spots, many people in the industry discover what films are in theaters by checking the box office. That might seem silly, but it reminds professionals whose time may be limited about a film they wanted to check out and also makes them notice a film that has done so well actually they need to see it. And, this isn’t a generational or age issue. Speak to any busy, young twenty-something actor and the films they need to “catch up on” are usually those who have done well in either limited or initially wide release. The box office report is the sports scoreboard of the movie industry. It lets you know who is in play. It’s that simple.
Now, I know what you’re wondering, “Well, what about all those AMPAS members who wait until the Christmas holidays to watch their screeners?” It is true, a significant number of the membership catch up in their downtime, but it’s still a rare voter who hasn’t seen at least a few major contenders in the theater. It might be a guild or AMPAS screening or they may have actually – gasp – paid for a ticket themselves. These box office reports are just another reminder like reviews and multiple windows of advertising that they need to catch something at one point or another (in theater or throw in that screener). Of course, none of this means they’ll vote for it. The movie still has to be worthy, but box office reporting does matter in the “don’t forget to watch it” mix.
Did the lack of box office reports mean Dee Rees’ “Mudbound” never had a shot for a Best Picture nomination last year? Netflix and their consultants (now in-house) will tell you a huge portion of AMPAS saw the film in some form or another. And considering it earned four nominations from four different branches it’s hard to argue with that. Of course, Netflix’s peers would counter that having a traditional distribution would have meant even more Oscar nominations. It’s a worthy debate and we’ll never know for sure.
That brings us back to “Roma.” Is Netflix planning on releasing box office totals for Cuaron’s passion project? We honestly don’t know, but they might be trying to split the difference. Now, why would Netflix be concerned about moving up their Dec. 14 date to, potentially, Nov. 30? Well, first off it would mean putting “Roma” just in theaters in likely just New York and LA for the two weeks before the global service launch. That’s something. Considering the publicity boost “Roma” will get at that time from the critics groups and opening day reviews it should be enough to inform AMPAS and guild members that “Oh, hey, I really should see this on the big screen first.” Of course, that’s assuming Netflix can book the upscale theaters members prefer, the Arclight and Landmark in Los Angeles and the Landmark 57, Angelika and AMC Lincoln in New York. That may actually be the toughest aspect of this strategy if Netflix goes through with it.
Even without box office reports (and we do question whether Netflix will go that far, although we’d certainly suggest it), having “Roma” land in theaters first for an extend window would be a huge olive branch to members of the Academy who have issues with the streaming service. The directors and writers branch have seemingly been the most critical of streaming films being considered (although “Mudbound” did earn an Adapted Screenplay from the later branch nod last year) and an exclusive big screen experience may work wonders in locking in their first or second place vote. And that’s why this is all so important. The oft-repeated line “you win Best Picture in phase one” isn’t a joke. Most members have already decided on who their winner is before the nominations are out. It can still be close (see “Shape of Water” vs. “Three Billboards” last year), but most members know who’ll they’ll be voting for in phase two. And that’s why there has only been one film since “Million Dollar Baby,” the aforementioned “Shape,” that has broken the December release curse (and that was still technically in theaters in the “last week” of November). You need the time for members to settle on what they have seen and for the buzz to disseminate for those screener voters catching up at at the literal end of the year.
So, should Netflix move forward with this earlier “exclusive” window? You bet they should. Will it make a big difference in one of the most wide-open Best Picture races in years? I mean, don’t you think so?
“Roma” should have a limited theatrical window sometime in the next two months. Maybe.
