Comments on: Post-TIFF Oscar Best Pic Predix

By: samcmac

samcmac — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:20:10 +0000

I just can't imagine "Nine" getting bumped. I think the Weinsteins will just go all-in casino style and push them both.

I don't see "Nine" NOT being a big Oscar contender, and even if it somehow misses BP, there are still a dozen other nominations it couple get that I don't see "A Single Man" earning - lots of techs, supporting nods. And really, "Nine" will get way more BO than "A Singe Man," and that's probably what the Weinsteins need right now.

But honestly I think (having seen 'Man' like you) that that film will be the one coming up short, despite a full-on Weinsteins push, and will get a Best Actor nod but not a whole lot else.

To twist what you've said a bit: If "Nine" doesn't get bumped I'm going to assume it's as big a contender as it's always seemed to be.

I'm with you on "The Lovely Bones" though. Not so much because of the release date ("Letters from Iwo Jima," a Japanese language film, managed ok with that spot, and only 5 nominees), but because the trailer made it look kinda awful, and I'm betting the movie is a bit of a mess.

By: rodrigoperez

rodrigoperez — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:34:51 +0000

@Circus, see "Defiance." In the past it was an indication of nothing. Now it sort of means a film set into a certain time-frame so it will qualify for Oscar, but there isn't a ton of hope there. Or at least that's my prediction. Paramount seems gung-ho about Up In The Air and most studios don't really have the juice to push more than one movie -- which might be the pickle that TWC is in.

And they might be thinking long and hard on that one especially since they still haven't moved Nine yet.

By: cirkusfolk

cirkusfolk — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:48:09 +0000

I don't think The Lovely Bones being released limited in late Dec., only to expand in Jan. is a sign of anything. Now I'm not speaking for the film in anyway (it may or may not have a shot), but I can name a dozen films that were released like that and were big awards contenders.

By: rodrigoperez

rodrigoperez — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:19:56 +0000

And @Bestcelebrity. Actually that list is pretty great (if it happens) and better than last years 5 for sure.

By: rodrigoperez

rodrigoperez — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:19:16 +0000

@ SK, yes i do think Up has a shot at being in both categories. It's buzz has just died down at the moment, but it could bubble up again around For Your Consideration time. It's all about rising and falling temperatures and this is where were are at this very moment.

I think Amelia may have a shot, but we'll really have to wait and see.

By: rodrigoperez

rodrigoperez — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:17:34 +0000

I don't have a lot of faith in TWC Anon1. I actually think they're prolly gonna bump Nine, but who knows.

If they do bump it they'll probably save it for Fall 2010 unless something better comes along (they're only loyalty is to their best Oscar shot).

They should kinda realize Oscar prestige doesn't rake in the dollars they used to, but that's the world they know, so their end game each year is Oscar and nothing but.

By: Bestcelebrity

Bestcelebrity — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:17:02 +0000

Wow, the Oscar noms are a big pile of shit this year.

By: Cde.

Cde. — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:38:20 +0000

I think a film can go for both Best Animated and Best Picture, just like one can go for both Best Foreign Language and Best Picture. Documentaries need to chose between Best Picture or Best Documentary, which in the past lead to 2004's documentary sensation, Fahrenheit 9/11, failing to recieve any nominations after Moore and co decided to push it for BP.

By: SK

SK — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:55:44 +0000

A couple questions:

1. So if 'Nine' might gets bumped will it be until next fall 2010 so that it fits into awards consideration season? A full year is too long for me.
Is it maybe fair to say that given the tightening of wallets perhaps TIFF is now a little too late in the year for building buzz? (Especially when/if a studio wants to promote two movies).

2. Does 'Up' have to choose between the Best Picture and Best Animated categories when being submitted. I think the studio will go with the sure thing and take home the gold.

3. Odds of Tom Ford coming to the Oscars with no tie and an open collar to his sternum?

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:36:48 +0000

those all seem like good predictions but do you think that the tree of life (if released in time) will get a nod?

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:20:58 +0000

You're putting a lot of faith that the Weinsteins (who are still in the hole) have enough money to push the trades for 2 oscar nominated films for best picture and Disney and Fox don't?

Amelia and Up should vie for slots.