Comments on: There Are No Frontrunners Yet, So Here’s Some Unsolicited Oscar Advice For Hollywood

By: Pedro

Pedro — Mon, 18 Sep 2017 23:52:00 +0000

In reply to Sam. Do you think Sally Hawkins could win like Emma Stone won? By giving a magical performance in a strong movie. Or is she more subtle and internalized like Amy Adams in Arrival?

By: James De Roxtra

James De Roxtra — Mon, 18 Sep 2017 09:55:00 +0000

In reply to Torah87. Oh okay, I remember reading in one of her excerpts that she thought Ronan was the most likely winner. (If the Oscars were tomorrow, I think Sally Hawkins would be more likely.) I think Ronan is most likely going to win the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical though, unless Frances McDormand is in the same category. Then it's a toss-up! I hope to see the trifecta of Hawkins/Ronan/McDormand all nominated at the Oscars. And ITA about Gerwig. She's amassed much appreciation and respect over the years for her multitude of talents. She might've had a chance with Frances Ha if it were released in 2014 instead of 2013, a stacked year. But I can see her being one of the top Original Screenplay contenders.

By: Torah87

Torah87 — Sun, 17 Sep 2017 12:54:00 +0000

It’s bit ignorant to dismiss Ronan when it’s clear she”ll be nominated, and who knows maybe even win!

By: Torah87

Torah87 — Sun, 17 Sep 2017 12:50:00 +0000

In reply to James De Roxtra. Anne Thompson hasn't stated Ronan is a winner but definitely a nominee! Which she will be!

By: James De Roxtra

James De Roxtra — Sat, 16 Sep 2017 04:24:00 +0000

So much to comment on! Piece by piece, let’s start with A24. You seem oddly subdued on Lady Bird/Ronan. You seem to be in the minority on this one. I do think some who think Ronan is an instant Oscar winner (looking at you, Anne Thompson) may be jumping the gun, but I can definitely see her getting a nomination. I agree about Metcalf, and don’t underestimate Gerwig. She’s been on an upswing for years now, and they love an actor/actress who can also write/direct. I think she is a likely nominee for Original Screenplay. As contentious as it may be. And if it finds the momentum, could even sneak in for Best Picture. Also, definitely agree that The Florida Project has at least nominations for Best Picture and Original Screenplay (okay, I see why you’re concerned, haha) in tow, and potentially a winner in Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor. They do love their vets in that category.

Annapurna is probably out of it. Poor Detroit and especially Bigelow, who was snubbed for Zero Dark Thirty. Maybe you’re right about the SAG push. If they play their cards right, it could work. Meanwhile, what is this Last Flag Flying for Best Picture talk. Seriously? That looks like a pleasant non-contender to me. At best, its only hopes are for acting: Maybe Cranston can sneak in during this weak year, but Fishburne and Carell will have difficulty. No for Picture or for Screenplay, at all. Ahhh yes, the 2 Wonder-movies. I wonder (heh) what Wonderstruck can accomplish. I feel like Julianne Moore is a very likely nominee for a weak category. Dual role, aging, etc. It’s perfect Oscarbait. Meanwhile, as soon as I checked out the IMDb page for Wonder Wheel, I had mixed feelings. It looked a bit fluffy to me, so I expected a throwaway comedy. Then it turns out its a drama, so I thought “Could this be Winslet’s Blue Jasmine?” Now I honestly have no idea. But the buzz being bad sorta pleases me, since it confirmed my initial gut instincts. That being said, I adore Winslet and wouldn’t mind if it worked for her at least. But since this race is SO crowded, eh, Idk. As for The Big Sick, can it go all the way to a BP nomination? Or is screenplay its only hope? Ray Romano probably has no shot, but I bet Holly Hunter does.

By: James De Roxtra

James De Roxtra — Sat, 16 Sep 2017 04:10:00 +0000

In reply to cirkusfolk. Denzel is not a lock anymore. In fact, he may be an alternate choice at best. Bale depends on whether or not Hostiles even gets released this year. Right on about supporting actor though.

By: cirkusfolk

cirkusfolk — Thu, 14 Sep 2017 22:28:00 +0000

So the actress race is packed but what about actor? It seems to be lacking. From what I’ve read, Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington are locks, but who else do we got? Jake Gylenhaal? Christian Bale? Daniel Day maybe. I think all the male roles getting buzz will be considered supporting. Sam Rockwell, Armie Hammer, Willem Dafoe, Ben Mendelson, Steve Carrell, Michael Shannon, Christoph Waltz, Mark Rylance.

By: Sam

Sam — Thu, 14 Sep 2017 18:11:00 +0000

After seeing Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Hostile, Battle of the Sexes, Shape of Water, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool and Lady Bird at Telluride, I agree with most of your assessment for noms but no “locks” for wins. I didn’t leave with the feeling of destiny like I did after watching Argo or King’s Speech. Oldman for Best Actor is the closest but the other four slots are still open.
In an open year like this, it is a good time to expand the field to the entire year like everyone proclaims every year. So, seeing Get Out listed is refreshing. But you should have included James McAvoy for his performance in Split in your recommendation to Universal.
To quote Playlist’s review – “Though McAvoy doesn’t get the chance to show us all 24 personalities within Kevin’s body, he does get to display about a third of them, each a distinct character with his or her own voice, movements and carriage. In the film’s last act, he gets to run through a number in a breathless sequence. If “Split” were a drama released in the final months of the year, he’d be getting awards talk, but its “lesser” genre status means that he likely won’t receive the attention the performance(s) deserve.”
Think that still applies and Get Out nullifies the genre comment, plus Split had a larger world wide box office.