Coogler deserves a lion’s share of credit for “Panther’s” success, but we’re wary of hyping his potential for a Best Director nod. A DGA nod, which recognized Nolan for “Dark Night,” is a possibility, but the Director’s branch are a fickle and often cinephile bunch (note Paul Thomas Anderson over Martin McDonagh this year and Nolan’s snub in 2009). This should be Disney’s main focus after Best Picture and Coogler is going to have to do a lot of hand shaking on the awards circuit if it has a real shot at happening.
Among the cast Michael B. Jordan has the best shot for a nomination in the Supporting Actor category. There is precedent, Heath Ledger winning for his iconic portrayal of the Joker, and Jordan was on the cusp of a nod for “Creed” two years ago. Acting campaigns often need a career storyline and Jordan absolutely has one and that’s a huge help. It also wouldn’t hurt if “Panther” lands a SAG Ensemble Award nod, but the only Sci-Fi Fantasy films SAG has ever embraced in this category are Peter Jackson’s “Lord of the Rings” films so it won’t be easy with a guild membership that rarely veers out of the broad prestige lane. There are others who will push for Chadwick Boseman or Letitia Wright for acting nominations, but that seems highly unlikely to come to pass.
The costumes of two-time nominee Ruth E. Carter have a very strong chance of earning a Costume Design nomination and there is recent precedence for Sci-Fi Fantasy in the branch with 2016 winner “Mad Max: Fury Road” and recent nominees such as “Maleficent” and “Snow White and the Huntsman.”
Rachel Morrison, this year’s history making nominee for “Mundbound,” could easily duplicate her nomination in the Best Cinematography category. The question is whether the branch can see past the visual effects that mask or are incorporated in much of her work.
“Logan” opened the door to the Adapted Screenplay category, but that achievement occurred in a historically weak year (seriously, we cannot emphasize this enough). Thankfully, Coogler and co-writer Joe Robert Cole have already earned accolades within the industry. Cole is an Emmy nominee for “American Crime Story” and won a WGA Award winner for the same series. Coogler’s numerous accolades for “Fruitvale Station” and “Creed” speak for themselves. They’ve both got a shot here, but this nomination will be harder to land than it might seem to the general movie fan. Before “Logan” the closest this category came to “Panther” was a nomination for “District 9.”
Best Editing seems a worthy fight as recent nominees include “The Dark Knight,” “District 9,””Arrival” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.” The only concern is that editors Michael P. Shawver and Debbie Berman have literally no previous accolades of any kind on their resumes. It doesn’t matter, but it does.
Ludwig Göransson is a reach for Original Score, but we’re very curious whether Kendrick Lamar’s “Pray for Me” and “All The Stars” will qualify for Best Song. The former, in particular, could appeal to the Music Branch with former nominee The Weeknd‘s participation and Lamar’s seven Grammy wins doesn’t hurt his stature with his peers either (in hindsight it’s not a surprise Adele, Sam Smith and Pharell either won or were nominated just a few years after massive hauls at the Grammy Awards).
Production Design is possible, but likely a reach. Yes, Nathan Crowley’s work for “The Dark Knight” made the cut, that film was significantly less “superhero” than “Panther.” For all of Hannah Beachler’s imaginative work it still looks very much like a blockbuster in Marvel mode. Luckily, Beachler’s resume, which includes Best Picture winner “Moonlight” and an Art Directors Guild Award win for “Beyonce’s Lemonade,” will at least make them pay attention in the first place.
The Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories are probably the likeliest of the below the line nominations with “The Dark Knight” winning both categories in 2009 and previous nominees including “Iron Man,” “Spider-Man 2” and “Batman Forever” (not to mention a slew of commercial blockbusters such as “The Matrix,” “Armageddon,” “Transformers,” “Tron: Legacy” and the last two “Star Wars” films). This is the easiest bet if you’re visiting Vegas over the next 10 months.
Visual Effects is a slightly dicey proposition. The backdrops are beautiful, but there is already criticism over some of the battle effects from even hardcore fans and if they are noticing than you can bet members of the branch are too. That being said, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” “Doctor Strange,” “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” “The Avengers” and every “Iron Man” movie were all previous nominees. It depends how the field breaks out and there will also be competition from “Infinity War,” as well.
The 2019 Academy Awards are a long way off, but in many ways they are not. By this time last year there were already four Best Picture contenders out of Sundance in “Get Out,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound.” All four films were nominated in at least one category and two of them earned Best Picture nods. After a historically weak 10 days in Park City the Oscar race appears to have started in Wakanda and you can bet that Kevin Feige and the Marvel Studios team are salivating over it.
