Well Gyllenhaal is a much better actor than Wahlberg. In fact, just like with Adam Sandler, Wahlbergs best performance came in a PTA film and he didn’t even get a nom for it. I’m not doubting the film, Deepwater Horizon has good reviews and I think the Wahlberg/Peter Berg partnership is getting stronger with each film, but I still doubt Wahlberg the actor. And that combined with the late release, I think works against him. Like you’ve mentioned already, no film has won BP without being seen before December since Million Dollar Baby. Now there are quite a few films that could tip that stat like Fences, Silence, Gold and maybe Live By Night. But I don’t think Patriots Day will be the film to do it.

Having seen both Loving and Nocturnal Animals I’d say Gyllenhaal over Edgerton. You and I may not have seen Patriots Day, but people I trust have. Don’t be so quick to say “no way.”