Monsters vs. Aliens is looking like it will do similar numbers as Kung Fu Panda.

Monsters vs. Aliens did 59.32 MIL. in its opening weekend, falling 43.5% to $33.51 MIL in its second weekend.

Kung Fu Panda did slightly better, doing $60.24 MIL in its opening weekend, but it fell by a slightly larger 44.2% to do $33.61 MIL in its second weekend.

Monsters vs. Aliens is already at $105+ million right now, and Kung Fu Panda finished its North American run at $215 million. It’s worldwide totals equalled an astounding $416 million, for a total box office run of $631,908,951.00.

If Monsters vs. Aliens does numbers comparable with that abroad, there’s no way they’ll lose money on this.

I’m glad you took time to teach me about the similarities between the film industry and economics. Because Hollywood is a funny place- financially scoring isn’t nearly as important as perception. MvA is kind of a big deal to Dreamworks- they’ve been discussing it for years now, and even sunk extra money into the project to convert more than a few theaters to digital 3D for the occasion, a process I’ve been told is about $15 million. So that’s $15 on top of, I will wager, $180 budget and $100 ad. In America, the studios take 55% of the average gross (and this is Paramount and Dreamworks- I’d like for someone to confirm how/if that gets split now that Dreamworks has left). So let’s say the film does have its legs taken out from underneath by Hannah Montana (possibly) and/or Dragonball (not too likely) and it finishes out at $180 million. Theatrically, that covers a shade under $100 million of these expenses, leaving international to pick up the pace and turn it into a solid profit before DVD’s.

And no doubt it will. In the end, internationally, Monsters Vs. Aliens will be a hit. And as you said, a Christmas DVD release will be mega profitable. But that requires a wait, and studios don’t like to wait.

The reason studios have celebrated the media’s exultation of big opening numbers is because the longer a film plays the larger a profit share the theaters receive. Studios like to score big right off the bat- the ideal studio film makes $200 million in its first four weeks and $10 million after that. Much of that has to do with perception- a film that does solid business over a few weeks is not as exciting as a film that does boffo biz in its first two weeks, even if the same amount of money is generated.

Adding to this the fact that the film is not performing up to Kung-Fu Panda’s level domestically, and there’s the notion that, while no doubt the kind of success that keeps bank accounts padded, it’s not the kind of success they were hoping for years ago when they greenlit this and put it at a release date against “Avatar.”

Perception means a lot to people than one might think. This four year gap between cash cow Spider-Man movies- is it because they didn’t turn a massive profit with “Spider-Man 3?” Or, more likely, did they get a black eye when it turned out to be the lowest grossing of the series (second best if you count international)? It’s not about profit, its about success vs. perception.

The film will do about $500 to $600 million at the box office, then it’ll do another $300 to $500 million on DVD. It’s numbers are in line with Kung Fu Panda which did just that.

You don’t seem to understand that animated films are different than other live-action films. They have a longer life at theaters, they do EXTREMELY WELL abroad and this film specifically will have a long life given it’s playing at 3D theaters throughout most of the spring/summer.

Then animated DVDs sell EXTREMELY WELL. Especially this one which will be out just in time for Christmas.

“Kung Fu Panda” did just over $200 million stateside, and then did $400 million internationally. MvsA is already at $100+ million stateside (in ten days, with March Break and Easter still to go) and has done $12 million in Russia ALONE IN ONE WEEK (it opens this weekend everywhere else). So it’s a pretty safe bet that the film will also do extremely well abroad.

$500 million is more than reasonable and $600 million most likely.

Then, after DVD sales and rentals, you’ve got television and other merchandising and licencing agreements…

How much will they take in when all is said and done do you think?

This movie is doing exactly what everyone thought it would do. It doesn’t have to “blow the doors” off of anything. How stupid is that?

I guarantee you no one at Dreamworks is upset about how this movie is doing, and no one else is calling this a “disappointment” either. Why? Because people understand that even if it doesn’t make back its money in the theater, which is will in spades, the majority of its money will come from DVD and licencing anyway.

Go and learn the movie buisness before you start making statements about things you obviously don’t understand.

Stop trying to invent news and just report it.